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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still